Development and validation of a Bayesian survival model for inclusion body myositis

Table 1 Summary of observed and predicted deaths with cohorts composed as in the validation papers and predictor variables distributed as observed in the TMA dataset

Validation study	N	Study Duration (median)	Observed deaths	Predicted deaths (base-case model)	Predicted deaths (saturated model)
Cox et al. [5] (overall)	64	12	72% [61%; 83%]	61% [57%; 66%]	76% [64%; 85%]
Benveniste et al. [4]	136	2.5	18% [12%; 25%]	14% [11%; 17%]	35% [27%; 43%]

ISSN: 1742-4682